Recent developments in the Middle East are beginning to impact global supply chains, and there are early signs this may start to affect UK manufacturers.
While it is still developing, there are some clear indicators emerging around energy, materials and lead times that are worth paying attention to.
Why this matters
The Strait of Hormuz is one of the most important shipping routes in the world, with around 20% of global oil supply passing through it.
With shipping through the region now effectively halted due to escalating tensions, oil prices have already begun to rise. There are also growing concerns that this disruption could extend further than previous regional conflicts.
Given that Middle East refineries account for approximately 11.5% of global crude capacity, any sustained impact is likely to be felt well beyond the region.
The knock-on effect on materials
Higher oil prices are already feeding into increased petrochemical production costs.
The Middle East plays a significant role in supplying key plastic feedstocks. In 2025 alone, the region exported over 12.5 million tonnes of polyethylene, with around 84% dependent on the Strait of Hormuz.
Methanol is another area of concern, with approximately 9 million tonnes exported annually and widely used across plastics and industrial chemicals.
If disruption continues, producers may begin to face feedstock shortages. This can tighten supply and gradually push up costs across a range of materials, including polyethylene, polypropylene and ethylene.
While the US may help offset some of the gap, it is unlikely to fully replace supply in the short term.
What we are watching
From a packaging perspective, there are three key pressures beginning to build.
Rising energy costs are increasing production costs across both plastics and paper.
Shipping disruption is creating uncertainty around availability and lead times.
Feedstock shortages may begin to tighten supply if material flows remain restricted.
Impact on corrugated and paper packaging
It is not just plastic materials that may be affected.
Paper production, which underpins corrugated packaging, is one of the most energy-intensive manufacturing processes. As gas prices rise, this is likely to feed through into paper and board costs over time.
This may result in gradual price increases, as well as potential adjustments to lead times depending on how mills respond.
A measured approach
At this stage, it is important not to overreact, but equally not to ignore the direction of travel.
Supply chains have proven resilient in recent years, but the combination of energy cost increases, material risk and logistical disruption is something worth monitoring closely.
For most manufacturers, the focus should be on maintaining visibility and staying flexible as the situation develops.
Planning ahead
Periods like this tend to reward businesses that plan slightly further ahead and stay close to their suppliers.
Ensuring you have clear forecasting in place, appropriate buffer stocks where needed, and an understanding of back-up options can help reduce risk.
Just as importantly, regular and transparent communication becomes critical. Having clear, frequent updates allows you to react earlier and make better-informed decisions.
If you would like support in planning ahead or simply want to sense-check your current approach, feel free to reach out. Even a short conversation can help bring clarity in uncertain conditions.
